Bitcoin (BTC) increased considerably during the week of Oct 11-17, advancing close to a new all-time high price. While the trend is still bullish, BTC seems to be approaching the top of its short-term upward movement.
The weekly Bitcoin chart shows a mostly bullish trend, which is most pronounced in technical indicators.
BTC still has yet to reclaim an ascending support line from which it previously broke down from. Until it does that, the price action cannot be considered bullish. The line is especially important since it’s followed the price movements from the March 2020 low.
However, technical indicators paint a firmly bullish picture. Firstly, the MACD is positive and increasing and is in the process of creating the first bullish histogram bar since the beginning of June (green icon). The MACD is created by a combination of short and long-term moving averages (MA). The reading means that the shorter-term trend is moving faster than the long-term trend.
The RSI is also above 50. The RSI is a momentum indicator, and the cross above 50 indicates that the trend is bullish. The previous time the indicator crossed above 50 was at the beginning of the upward move in April 2020. In addition to this, the recent cross makes the previous decrease below 50 just a slight deviation (red circle).
Finally, the Supertrend is bullish. This indicator uses absolute high and low prices to determine the direction of the trend. Since the BTC price is above the indicator line, the trend is considered bullish (green circle).
New Bitcoin all-time high on the horizon?
The daily chart provides a similarly bullish outlook. BTC moved above the $57,200 resistance area on Oct 14 and increased considerably the next day. This was the final resistance area prior to the current all-time high price of $64,854.
Similar to the weekly time frame, technical indicators in the daily chart are also bullish. The MACD is positive and increasing and the RSI is also increasing and is above 70. Unlike the weekly chart, this shows a slightly overbought trend that is still bullish.
The short-term wave count shows that BTC is in the fifth and final wave of a bullish impulse. This means that after the movement is complete, a correction would be expected. The long-term wave count is also bullish.
The most likely target for the top of the upward move is found between $63,250 and $63,850. This target range is found using the 1.61 length of wave one (white) and the 0.618 length of waves 1-3 (black).
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