Recommendation for GBP/NZD: Buy

Buy Stop: Above 1.927

Stop Loss: Below 1.88

Indicator Value Signal
RSI   Neutral
MACD   Sell
MA(200)   Neutral
Fractals   Neutral
Parabolic SAR   Buy
Bollinger Bands   Buy

Chart Analysis


On the daily timeframe, GBPNZD: D1 went up from the long-term downtrend. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish move if GBPNZD rises above the last high and upper Bollinger band: 1.927. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, 2 last lower fractals, and the lower Bollinger line: 1.88. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price overcomes the stop level (1.88) without activating the order (1.927), it is recommended to delete the order: some internal changes in the market have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

New Zealand’s services PMI declined in January 2021. Will the GBPNZD quotes grow ? The upward movement shows the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the British pound. In January, the Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 47.9 points from 49.1 in December. The Global Dairy Trade Price Index will be published on February 16. It may affect the dynamics of the New Zealand dollar, as dairy products account for more than a quarter of New Zealand’s exports. In addition, New Zealand Visitor Arrivals y/y in December will also be published on Tuesday. Estimates for both indicators are relatively weak. Meanwhile, in December 2020 UK GDP and industrial production were better than expected. Also, the British pound rate can be supported by a successful Covid-19 vaccination. To date, 15 million people in Britain have been vaccinated, which is approximately 22% of the population. Britain will release data on inflation this Wednesday and retail sales – on Friday. These indicators can affect the dynamics of the pound.

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