I’ve always been a numbers man when it come to bitcoin’s growth, especially as we try to predict future mass adoption. Yesterday was bitcoin’s 12th anniversary, and since the bitcoin whitepaper has been published on 350 web sites and cited by over 1,100 scholarly articles. This weekend, bitcoin’s price rose above $14,000 for the first time since January 2018. As I write this, bitcoin is hovering around $13,800. Until now, bitcoin has seen three major bull runs. In June 2011, when bitcoin’s price hit $30, in January 2014 when it was reached $1,100 and December 2017 when it skyrocketed to $20,000. Each of these peaks was followed by a huge drop, where bitcoin lost more than 80% of its value. Over the next twelve months following the December 2017 high, bitcoin’s price steadily dropped and by late 2018 it reached a low around $3,200. In mid-2019 it reached $13,800 before dropping to $4,000 in early 2020. Now it’s soaring again and many HODLers are hopping to see it clear past the highs of late 2017. I’ve compiled numbers from a variety of sources about bitcoin’s growth in 2020. Hopefully, the big picture will become clearer, as you piece the data together
Ilias Louis Hatzis is the founder and CEO at Kryptonio, a bitcoin and cryptocurrency “keyless” wallet, that lets users manage bitcoin and crypto, without private keys or passwords.
1) Bitcoin obituaries per year (source: 99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries)
Since Satoshi’s published his invention almost a twelve years ago, bitcoin has passed away a total of 383 times.
2) Interest by Region (source: trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bticoin)
Over the last 12 months the Countries with the most relative interest in searching for Bitcoin, were Brazil, Belgium, South Africa, Netherlands and Switzerland.
3) General Interest (source: subredditstats.com/r/bitcoin)
The rate of new subscribers to bitcoin’s Reddit channel (/r/bitcoin) has been phenomenal, growing by 67% in the last 12 months and reaching 1.7 million users.
4) Institutional Interest (source analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-futures)
Professional investors’ interest in bitcoin continues to grow at an immense rate. MicroStrategy, Square and Stone Ridge’s a $115 million bitcoin investment, show that regardless of what critics have said about cryptocurrencies, savvy investors and entrepreneurs are building sizable positions in bitcoin.
5) Retail Interest (source coinmetrics.io)
There also appear to be more holders than ever. CoinMetrics showed that we hit 16.6 million, a new all time high in the number of addresses holding more than $10 worth of $BTC. Also the number of addresses holding at least $100 worth of BTC hit a new all-time high of 9.74M on October 22nd. A new adoption cycle is brewing, as there are now more addresses with a small balance than were seen at the height of the previous bull market in 2017.
6) Academic Interest (source: scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=bitcoin)
Academic interest continued to increase, which is great for the long-term prospects of this industry as we continue to gain a greater understanding of what we’re building. Here are Google Scholar articles published mentioning Bitcoin:
2020: 18,100 (until October 2020)
7) Bitcoin Users & Wallets (source: statista.com/statistics/647374/worldwide-blockchain-wallet-users)
he number of blockchain wallets has been growing since the creation of the Bitcoin virtual currency in 2009, reaching over 54 million B wallet users at the end of October 2020. The third edition of the University of Cambridge’s study on the cryptocurrency has just been published and they estimate that the Bitcoin network has officially passed the 100 million user milestone.
8) More bitcoin bulls than ever before (source: scribd.com/document/481729535/Grayscale-2020-Bitcoin-Investor-Study)
Grayscale found more interest in bitcoin investing than ever before, with a significant amount of the growth in interest being driven by economic and monetary policy following the coronavirus pandemic.
9) Fear & Greed Index (source: alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index)
The current rise in the Bitcoin price is that it has not plunged the market into widespread euphoria. We are still a long way from the total FOMO feeling we were in at the end of 2017.
Over the last month, Bitcoin has been getting more attention from institutional investors, but also more attention overall. Last week’s move from PayPal is going to be the ultimate FOMO for the banking industry. We will also see many more big corporations that simply want to diversify into a new asset class, join the ranks of Microstrategy, Square and Stone Ridge. Covid19 has accelerated the adoption of technology far beyond our expectations. Having been in the Bitcoin market for several years now, I believe there’s a strong chance that bitcoin will surpass 16–18K in 2020, and then potentially see new highs in 2021. If bitcoin follows the trajectory it did in 2016, 2021 could be a record setting year.
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