First Mover: Bitcoiners May Not Care if Dollar Keeps Its Reserve StatusFirst Mover: Bitcoiners May Not Care if Dollar Keeps Its Reserve Status

A growing number of economists and analysts – and even the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs – have speculated this year that the U.S. dollar might be on the cusp of losing its status as the dominant reserve currency for central banks around the world. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="That possibility has helped to support this year’s 50% increase in prices for bitcoin, seen by many cryptocurrency investors as a hedge against a dollar devaluation.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”20″>That possibility has helped to support this year’s 50% increase in prices for bitcoin, seen by many cryptocurrency investors as a hedge against a dollar devaluation. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="But CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reported Tuesday that, according to one prominent foreign-exchange analyst, the dollar’s value could decline significantly even if the U.S. currency keeps its majority share of global central-bank reserves for the foreseeable future. As of the most recent data, the percentage is around 60%.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”21″>But CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reported Tuesday that, according to one prominent foreign-exchange analyst, the dollar’s value could decline significantly even if the U.S. currency keeps its majority share of global central-bank reserves for the foreseeable future. As of the most recent data, the percentage is around 60%. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Related: Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price” data-reactid=”22″>Related: Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“Backing the dollar is the world’s biggest, deepest and the most transparent government bond market,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the book “Making Sense of the Dollar,” told CoinDesk in a&nbsp;video chat on Wednesday. “I just don’t know how&nbsp;bitcoin&nbsp;can replace the greenback from that viewpoint.”” data-reactid=”23″>“Backing the dollar is the world’s biggest, deepest and the most transparent government bond market,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the book “Making Sense of the Dollar,” told CoinDesk in a video chat on Wednesday. “I just don’t know how bitcoin can replace the greenback from that viewpoint.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Read More:&nbsp;Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler” data-reactid=”24″>Read More: Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler

Bitcoin Watch

Bitcoin’s price bounce from Friday’s low of $10,380 looks to have stalled, and the cryptocurrency remains trapped in a contracting triangle or a narrowing price range. 

Such low-volatility price consolidations often end with a violent move on either side. 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Related: Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler” data-reactid=”28″>Related: Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler

Some investors may be anticipating a range breakdown, given the weekly chart MACD histogram has crossed below zero, a sign of a bearish shift in momentum. 

The indicator, however, is based on backward-looking moving averages and lags prices. As such, its reliability is under question. 

Besides, broader sentiment in the options market is bullish, according to three- and six-month put-call skews, which measure the cost of puts relative to calls. 

Further,  on-chain data shows the market is currently witnessing a bigger influx of new investors than it did at the height of the bull market frenzy in late 2017. That is a major bullish sign, according to popular analyst Willy Woo. 

– Omkar Godbole

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Read More:&nbsp;Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price” data-reactid=”34″>Read More: Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price

Token Watch

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Wrapped bitcoin (wBTC):&nbsp;Record $616M of wrapped bitcoin&nbsp;minted in September.” data-reactid=”36″>Wrapped bitcoin (wBTC): Record $616M of wrapped bitcoin minted in September.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Ether (ETH):&nbsp;Futures contracts on BitMEX for Ethereum’s native token&nbsp;drop by half in wake of U.S. regulators filing charges against Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”37″>Ether (ETH): Futures contracts on BitMEX for Ethereum’s native token drop by half in wake of U.S. regulators filing charges against Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange. 

What’s Hot

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="FCA finalizes ban on sale of crypto derivatives to UK retail consumers (CoinDesk)&nbsp;” data-reactid=”39″>FCA finalizes ban on sale of crypto derivatives to UK retail consumers (CoinDesk) 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="74-year-old software magnate-turned-crypto-bull&nbsp;John McAfee is arrested in Spain for alleged tax evasion (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”40″>74-year-old software magnate-turned-crypto-bull John McAfee is arrested in Spain for alleged tax evasion (CoinDesk)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Binance cryptocurrency exchange abandons plan to form strategic alliance with Japanese trading platform TaoTao (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”41″>Binance cryptocurrency exchange abandons plan to form strategic alliance with Japanese trading platform TaoTao (CoinDesk)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="US Senator Toomey highlights digital currency regulations as he eyes banking panel chairmanship (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”42″>US Senator Toomey highlights digital currency regulations as he eyes banking panel chairmanship (CoinDesk)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The central bank of Estonia, is undertaking a “multi-year” research project that will investigate the suitability of a blockchain-based digital currency (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”43″>The central bank of Estonia, is undertaking a “multi-year” research project that will investigate the suitability of a blockchain-based digital currency (CoinDesk)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="China’s digital-yuan pilot has racked up $162M of transactions (South China Morning Post)” data-reactid=”44″>China’s digital-yuan pilot has racked up $162M of transactions (South China Morning Post)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab funds have been loading up on crypto mining stocks (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”45″>Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab funds have been loading up on crypto mining stocks (CoinDesk)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Central Bank of Oman warns that crypto assets are “fraught with high risks” (CoinDesk)” data-reactid=”46″>Central Bank of Oman warns that crypto assets are “fraught with high risks” (CoinDesk)

Analogs

The latest on the economy and traditional finance

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="A report from legal services firm Epiq shows U.S. commercial&nbsp;bankruptcy filings are up 33% so far in 2020 up&nbsp;78% from 2019 (Reuters)” data-reactid=”49″>A report from legal services firm Epiq shows U.S. commercial bankruptcy filings are up 33% so far in 2020 up 78% from 2019 (Reuters)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Australia’s cash rate has been left at record lows by the country’s central bank amid further rumors it will bolster monetary easing (CNBC)” data-reactid=”50″>Australia’s cash rate has been left at record lows by the country’s central bank amid further rumors it will bolster monetary easing (CNBC)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Asian stocks have risen to two week highs on news of U.S. Donald Trump’s ‘recovery’ from COVID-19 (Reuters)” data-reactid=”51″>Asian stocks have risen to two week highs on news of U.S. Donald Trump’s ‘recovery’ from COVID-19 (Reuters)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Asian sales of ‘healthy’ alcoholic beverages is on the rise amid consumer behavioural changes in the face of COVID-19 (Nikkei Asian Review)” data-reactid=”52″>Asian sales of ‘healthy’ alcoholic beverages is on the rise amid consumer behavioural changes in the face of COVID-19 (Nikkei Asian Review)

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="K-Shaped economy hides reality of 11M of U.S. jobs lost in pandemic recession, versus 8.7M in the post-Lehman Brothers recession of 2007-09 (WSJ)” data-reactid=”53″>K-Shaped economy hides reality of 11M of U.S. jobs lost in pandemic recession, versus 8.7M in the post-Lehman Brothers recession of 2007-09 (WSJ)

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