Economists at Credit Suisse continue to stick to our medium-term target of 1.1000 in EUR/CHF. In the short-term, they see some slight downside risks after the SNB policy meeting on Thursday, followed by some upward pressure heading into the referendum coming Sunday.
“It is feasible in our view that we could observe slight downward pressure on EUR/CHF after the SNB meeting. Such a move might then be followed by a recovery in EUR/CHF towards the end of the week amid positioning squaring ahead of the Swiss referendum. However, we expect the proposal to end the FMP to be rejected, which should cap the upside in EUR/CHF early next week.”
Medium-term, we remain of the view that EURCHF could reach our longstanding target of 1.1000. However, we currently do not see scope for even higher levels given the dovishness of the ECB, second wave COVID-19 fears, Brexit uncertainty and the looming US elections.”
“If on the other hand, the Swiss franc appreciates too rapidly, we do believe that the SNB will still be inclined to intervene in the foreign exchange markets. Nevertheless, we would consider our view to be wrong should EUR/CHF trade below 1.0590.”