BTC/USD Forex Signal: Very Weakly Bullish

The Dollar has made less progress against Bitcoin than it did against many other risky assets. 

BTC/USD: Room to rise to $11,460 remains

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached yet.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5 pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,831, $10,620, or $9,731.
  • Put the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,460, $11,557, or $11,804.
  • Put the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I thought the price would continue to inch up until the FOMC release later. I saw a potentially good strategy as trying to buy and hold on following a bullish turn after a retracement back to $10,620 if it happened, as I thought the price could rise much higher.

This was a good call insofar as the price did continue to inch higher until the FOMC release, but the effect of the release was to strengthen the Dollar, and we saw the Dollar also strengthen here against Bitcoin.

Interestingly, the Dollar has made less progress against Bitcoin than it did against many other risky assets. Another factor making the technical picture less bearish is the new higher support level at $10,831 which has been printed and continues to hold.

For these reasons, I am prepared to take a cautiously bullish bias on Bitcoin if we get a bullish bounce at $10,831 later today.

BTC/USD

There is nothing of high importance regarding the USD.

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